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Mortgage bankers and economists across the country are reporting an increase in 2nd home and investment property purchases in 2007 and anticipate that the vacation home market may start to heat up again in 2008 and 2009.
According to David Duncan, a mortgage consultant from the New Port Group in California, "Since the housing market has been hit with slow sales and price reductions, investors are turning to real estate as the bargains become more evident."
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Changes in home prices could have a more significant effect on expenditure than the traditional "wealth effect" suggests, Ben Bernanke said on Friday in comments that offer some insight into how the Federal Reserve may think about the continuing problems in the US housing market and real estate financing in general.
The Federal Reserve chairman told a conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed that, in addition to making homeowners richer or poorer, changes in house prices might influence the cost and availability of credit to consumers.
This is because people with home equity have more at stake in avoiding default. That, in turn, reduces the yield spread premium passed on by mortgage lenders owing to their imperfect knowledge of their borrowers' financial circumstances.
If this theory is correct, Mr Bernanke said, "changes in home values may affect household borrowing and spending by somewhat more than suggested by the conventional wealth effect".
The Fed chief notes that this argument also indicates that the distribution of home price gains or losses matters for consumption. "The effect on aggregate consumption of a given decline in house prices is greater, the greater the fraction of consumers who begin with relatively low home equity," he said.
In an economy such as the US where most home mortgage loans are still fixed-rate, the effect of home price changes on access to credit overall may be "muted", he said. But borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages – whose cash flow suffers when short-term interest rates go up – could see their access to credit deteriorate.
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